Democratic race in Iowa a dead heat

Interesting news:

The CBS Evening News reported, “Just 51 days now until the first votes are cast in the presidential campaign in the Iowa caucuses. And as CBS News-New York Times poll out tonight finds, Democrats Clinton, Obama and Edwards are neck and neck and neck. On the Republican side, the surprise is Huckabee, now in striking distance of Romney.” CBS (Greenfield) added, “In the latest CBS-New York Times poll, more than half the Iowa caucus goers say they could change their minds. But that is no match for a conflict-hungry media.” Chris Lehane, Gore’s former press secretary: “There is absolutely no question that the press want to make sure that there is a race.” Greenfield: “Chris Lehane was Al Gore’s campaign press secretary.” Lehane: “And every speed bump that you run into literally becomes known as a brick wall that you have to get around.”

In Iowa, Clinton leads with 25%, followed by John Edwards, 23%; Barack Obama, 22%; and Bill Richardson, 12%; with the rest of the field at 4% or less. On the GOP side, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Huckabee, 21%; Rudy Giuliani, 15%; Fred Thompson, 9%, Ron Paul, 4%; John McCain, 4%; and the rest of the field at 3% or less.

CBS and New York Times also released a New Hampshire survey today, but its results are far less striking, and are treated that way by the two organizations’ coverage. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads in the Granite State with 37%, followed by Obama, 22%; Edwards, 9%; Richardson, 6%; Dennis Kucinich, 5%; and the rest of the field at 2% or less. On the GOP side, Romney leads with 34%, followed by McCain, 16%; Giuliani, 16%; Paul, 8%; Huckabee, 5%; and Thompson, 5%.

The New York Times reports the new polls show Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say Obama and Edwards “are more likely than Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to say what they believe, rather than what they think voters what to hear, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Polls. But they also view Mrs. Clinton as the best prepared and most electable Democrat in the field, the polls found.” Republican voters in the state “say that Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, shares their values and views on immigration, a red-hot issue for Republicans in Iowa especially. But they are divided over whether Mr. Romney or Rudolph W. Giuliani, who Republican voters say does not share their values, would be the party’s strongest general-election candidate – and electability looms as a crucial factor for Republican voters in those states.”

Edwards overtaking Obama in Iowa (for this poll, anyhow) is big news, actually. Primaries are red meat zones, after all, and Edwards has thrown out several tons of that political appetizer, while Obama continues to insist that Democrats eat their broccoli and brussels sprouts. Of course, during the last presidential cycle Iowans were obsessed with electability when the rubber hit the road, and that may be hurting Obama as well. For my part, I’ve never understood why the elites believe that Obama’s support is as deep as it is…a guy that hasn’t even completed a single term in the Senate, much less served as an executive at any level just isn’t going to pull many votes from the middle class or the wealthy.

That’s Edwards’ problem as well. His populist schtick goes over well with the poor, and with labor, but the poor, sadly enough, don’t vote. Labor isn’t 100% in the bag for Edwards either, the Clinton machine can call in a lot of markers from that community, and they’ll be paid. Edwards’ campaign has drawn much of it’s rhetoric and tactics from the netroots, and that’s frankly not going to play very well among voters in middle America either. His 2004 performance in the South will probably repeat itself as well.

Clinton? Ah, Clinton. Neither Iowa or New Hampshire were kind to her husband in 1992, and it’s likely that Iowa, at least, won’t be kind to her either. Of course, Tom Harkin isn’t running this year, but Iowa just strikes me as more Edwards/Obama/Richardson country than Clinton country. The electability issue comes in to play as well — many Democrats worry that Clinton’s baggage from her husband’s two terms will hurt her in the general election, and those fears may hurt her in Iowa as well.

So, it really is a toss-up, isn’t it? There’s a possibility that Bill Richardson will pull a John Kerry and upset everyone else’s apple cart, but it’s not likely. Finally, this race is getting interesting.

Update: The NYT on electability here.