Romney was worried about carrying Utah?
This Room…. [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
needed the Utah win.
I don’t see why Romney is so worried. Hewitt just declared:
Given the Rush blast, the Dobson declaration, and Huck’s strength in the south, McCain can’t be considered a frontrunner by any conventional standard.
There, there, Mitt. Your pet talk show host just made it all better.
Filed under: Election 2008, Mitt Romney, Politics, Republicans
[...] Cadillac Tight addthis_url = ‘http%3A%2F%2Fasecondhandconjecture.com%2F%3Fp%3D2397′; addthis_title = [...]
*snicker*
I understand that Glenn Beck hung up on Mike Huckabee when the candidate called his radio show today.
Class, all the way. Maybe it’s all those painkillers he had to take for his surgery.
twc, more evidence of Obamania taking over: the Feb 9th primaries are VA MD and DC. Very heavy levels of black Democrats in all 3 states/district. Obama should win all 3 and add to his delegate base as well as his narrative.
Also, he’s well ahead of Clinton in money for the past month, impeding her ability to come back.
Too early to sing “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead?”
Doc: MD and DC will go overwhelmingly for Obama, that’s a guarantee. VA, perhaps not so much. The big population centers in Northern VA are white and Hispanic, with rural areas in Southern VA that have a high percentage of black residents.
Those DC commuters from Woodbridge to Reston are more populous, and more reliable voters than their Southern VA counterparts.
doc: way too early. The races in the next few weeks tend to favor Obama but the delegate count is amazingly tight — and the issue of the Michigan and Florida delegates is sitting out there like a time bomb. It looks as if this race might end up close enough that it can be decided by the superdelegates — current and former officeholders and DNC officials, who are not necessarily bound by anything other than personal choice. I know you’ve said that you think that they’ll ultimately throw the Clintons over and I think you may be right, but I don’t pretend to have any particular basis for that other than my gut.
The upcoming contests may be interesting. Wash., Neb., and Louisiana up Saturday. Washington state is medium-big, so fairly important. It’s a caucus (at least partly) and Obama has so far done very well in that format — he’s a former organizer and caucuses tend to reward organization and enthusiasm. Nebraska also a caucus. Louisiana is a primary and the question is whether the black vote come through again for Obama. My guess is that it will, so he could take all three that day. Maine is Sunday, a caucus state, and I can tell you that early signs are good for Obama. He’s coming for a rally in Bangor on Saturday and I bet he draws a big and enthusiastic crowd (although the prediction is for snow) that dwarfs the crowd Bill will get in Portland tomorrow night (snow then too, natch — hey, it’s Maine!). Local officeholders will be impressed. Rep. Tom Allen is very close to the Clintons but he’s also running against Collins and desperately needs independent and crossover votes. A crowd of thousands shouting for a politician gets noticed in Maine. Only 24 delegates, but I suspect another solid win for Obama.
Then there the Chesapeake primary and I agree with Joe that Virginia is the really interesting one there. It’s been trending Democratic driven by the prosperous beltway suburbs of northern Va and if they go for Obama he could win fairly comfortably, especially since he has Gov. Tom Kaine’s enthusiastic support (can you say “Veep?”). A strong win there, especially if he wins Maryland pretty easily, will give him a great day and give him some major momentum.
A week later is Hawaii (a gimmee for him) and, significantly, Wisconsin. It’s a sometime-uncomfortable neighbor to Illinois (look up “FIB” in the Urban Dictionary), but Milwaukee and Madison should be strong Obama centers and he’s done well in the midwest so far, winning Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota
Sorry, premature posting!
(I hate it when that happens…)
Anyway, if he wins Wisconsin comfortably he will not only have rolled up some decent delegate numbers by then but he will really have had a string of good press heading into the big showdown on March 4 with Texas and Ohio (Vermont and Rhode Island are overshadowed and probably cancel each other out). Texas, of course, is where Hillary is counting on the Hispanic vote. But two-thirds of the Texas delegates will actually be distributed by caucuses, and New Mexico shows Obama can hold his own in caucuses even in heavily Hispanic states under the right circumstances. (Nevada suggests the opposite). Ohio will also be very important. It’s similar to Missouri in that its demographics and electoral track record track the national picture very closely.
If Obama has a lead on the morning of March 5, the superdelegates may start to break his way. Maybe they’ll wait until Pennsylvania on April 22, but I expect Ohio and Texas to be the big battle.
We political junkies have been blessed — or cursed — to live in interesting times!
Correction of bad info: Texas will select 3/4 of its delegates by the primary vote, just 1/4 by caucus.
Apologies.
Oh, there is certainly no reason to count her out, I was being a bit facecious. It really is probably going to depend on the superdelegates. Scuttlebutt is they may pick Hillary, but only if he guarantees Obama as VP, but there is also speculation he wouldn’t take it, why would he want to be tied to a surely corrupt and problemic Clinton 3rd admin, and also would she allow a superstar to outshine her. Also, whoever the VP for Hllary is, if she did get elected, would be #3, not #2, and that would have to rankle any person with any dignity.
Everything is up in the air. I’m torn by the fact McCain would probably beat her and the fun ti would be to see her defeated in the nomination.