The Old Dominion

Scoff with me, my friends, at Maryland and the District of Columbia’s primaries. This state, and this District were bound to go for Obama from the moment he announced his candidacy.

At the border between the Old Line State and the Old Dominion, however, the scoffing must end. Virginia in 2008 is not natural Barack Obama country, in fact, just a few years ago it was a deep red state. Even today, Obama’s natural constituency (blacks and urban liberals) are not a majority voting bloc in Virginia, as there are too many rural and suburban areas in the state for the cities to overwhelm them.

And lo and behold, Obama destroyed Hillary Clinton there last night. Sixty-three percent of the vote to Hillary’s thirty-five. That’s not a win, it’s a bloody smackdown of epic proportions.

Some say we shouldn’t count Hillary out, that Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina and Texas have yet to vote, and that Hillary has yet to unleash the awesome power of the Clinton attack machine on Obama as of yet. I disagree. The exit polls in every race to date tell the tale of Hillary’s doom in this primary, with whites splitting down the middle, and enough of the traditional lower middle class Democratic voter base going to Obama to stifle her delegate count between now and the convention. Should the Clintons launch some sort of nasty attack(s) on Obama this late in the game, they’ll do her more damage than they do him.

You see this every now and then in politics, but it’s extremely rare. Hillary Clinton ran as close to a perfect campaign as it’s possible to run, and she came into this race with advantages that Obama, as a first term Senator couldn’t have matched. What she and her campaign couldn’t have counted on, however, was Obama’s mysterious messianic appeal to independents and new voters, and the almost historic percentage of youths that actually showed up, for once, to vote in primaries this year. Obama’s “coolness” factor, combined with whatever it is his appeal to middle aged voters is, overcame a real Democratic powerhouse.

The Clintons being the Clintons, I wouldn’t expect a concession anytime soon — especially if she nails down Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas. Without a serious, party splitting battle immediately before or during the convention, however, I just don’t see Hillary winning the nomination, and I think the odds against her in terms of superdelegate and party leadership support have become too large for her to wage that battle.

No, I think the Old Dominion effectively killed Hillary Clinton’s shot at the nomination this year.

Update: Boy, this sort of low-rent behavior isn’t going to help her case either.