How many voters will Supreme Court decisions swing?

Massimo Calabresi is of the opinion that Barack Obama is negating the advantages John McCain would seem to be accruing as a result of recent Supreme Court decisions:

When the Supreme Court issues rulings on hot-button issues like gun control and the death penalty in the middle of a presidential campaign, Republicans could be excused for thinking they’ll have the perfect opportunity to paint their Democratic opponent as an out-of-touch social liberal. But while Barack Obama may be ranked as one of the Senate’s most liberal members, his reactions to this week’s controversial court decisions showed yet again how he is carefully moving to the center ahead of the fall campaign.

Calabresi goes on to describe Obama’s positioning on the decisions, scoffing somewhat at the McCain campaign’s responses. In a nutshell, his theory is that by consistently moving to the middle on a variety of issues, Obama will be able to get away with siding with the opinions of Supreme Court justices he voted against.

I’m not so sure that’s the case. For my own part, I’m not wedded to mainstream conservative or liberal positions to the extent that I worry much about judicial activism or the makeup of the court, especially given that all of the horror stories that are bandied about in election years tend to be overwrought. Remember, after all, that Roberts and Alito were supposed to bring the court within inches of overturning Roe. This year, however, may prove different, based solely on my own reaction to the decisions and Obama’s positioning on them.

The cases themselves are volatile subject matter, for one thing. Declaring the death penalty off limits for rapists of 7-8 year old children is real Dukakis territory…after all, the effect of the decision is that a child rapist isn’t eligible for the death penalty, but a father who busts a cap in a child rapist’s ass is. McCain, of course, won’t use this framing (he’s already demonstrated a fatal inability or unwillingness to hit Obama hard on the issues), but 527 operations supporting the GOP certainly will.

Follow me past the fold, if you will, for more.

I have no doubt whatsoever in my mind that if someone raped one of my daughters, regardless of her age at the time, I’d do everything in my power to punish the rapist myself, before the legal system, with its politically correct leniency got their hands on him. Likewise, I have no doubt most fathers feel the same way. Obama’s disagreement with the decision smacks of opportunism to me…he didn’t even have Dukakis’ courage in stating his true position on the matter. Disagreeing with justices you’ve spent your campaign admiring over a single case doesn’t make me feel any better about the fact that you’ll nominate the exact same (or worse) types, particularly when a case with the implications of this one illustrates the proclivities of such justices so clearly.

Then, of course, there’s the 2nd Amendment (Heller) case. If ever there was a conservative “hot button”, this one is surely it. I’m about as far from a gun nut as you can get (I had my fill of shooting at things and blowing them up while running around in the woods without a shower for six weeks at a time courtesy of Uncle Sam, thankyouverymuch), but I’m surrounded by gun lovers, both friends and family. Again, Obama shows that he doesn’t have the courage of his convictions here, attempting to disown his own statement on the case immediately before the verdict became public. Of course, Obama’s swooning media sycophants won’t talk about the flip-flop, but then again, it’s early in the campaign, and the commercials are still being planned.

I’ve seen a lot of hopeful commentary on liberal sites speculating that the Heller decision might actually help Obama, given the court has now stated that Democrats cannot take guns away from people. That might fly with a politician whose name is not Barack Obama…but given Chicago’s own gun ban (which Obama has supported time and time again), it’s pretty clear once more that justices appointed by the Democratic nominee would be more than a little inclined to overturn Heller. The gun issue has loomed so large, for so long, that a shaky case and decision like this one isn’t going to allow those who care about it to breathe easily in the face of an Obama administration. The case will stay in the papers through the election season as well, with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley and Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich decrying the decision while the NRA prepares to sue the city.

So how badly will this hurt Obama? Naturally, it’s not going to affect him at all in the Kerry 2004 states, as Kerry’s hunting episode demonstrates. It’s hard to imagine anything at all could hurt him in those states. Remember, though…Axelrod and Obama are actually targeting Georgia, along with a couple of other southern states that are long shots to begin with this fall.

Ladies and gentlemen, I live in Georgia, and I’m a Democrat. Take it from me, Obama’s flip-flops and comments on both of these cases, if they are pointed out a sufficient number of times, at the correct intervals from now until November, will shatter any chance he has to carry this state. My fellow denizens of the majority of Georgia (that part that doesn’t fall within the boundaries of Fulton County) care about things like this more than they do “party unity” or “falling in line”…we’re Blue Dogs around here, not Yellow Dogs.

I’ll bet you dollars to donuts Florida, Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and South Carolina care just as much about these issues. Wouldn’t be surprised if Obama targets Colorado and Wyoming feel the same way. So yeah…if the GOP 527s and the RNC push these decisions and what they mean for the Supreme Court makeup of the future, I think there’s a potential for a great deal of damage here. Whether or not it’s capitalized on remains to be seen.

Update: Glenn points to Ann Althouse approving of the Obama flip-flops. Hey, Ann lives in Wisconsin, folks…not exactly Blue Dog territory :-)

Update II: Say what you will about Bill Clinton…but never forget he’s demonstrated a mean streak a mile wide in the past. If I were Barack Obama, I’d shudder at articles titled like this one: Bill Clinton says Barack Obama must ‘kiss my ass’ for his support. Especially if I was already feeling a bit guilty for casting a guy with Bill Clinton’s history of black approval ratings as a racist. Clinton’s confidence that Obama’s not going to do well with working class whites should be another point of concern for the Democratic nominee’s campaign…especially given that Bill Clinton, who is still clearly upset with Obama, still has the resources to ensure that’s the case if he decides to do so.

Final Update: Welcome, Instapundit readers, and Thanks, Glenn, for linking! Readers from the old days may want to take a minute to remember Rob Smith as well…his opinion on these cases would have been good reading, to say the least.